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    by Andy Potter of Horse Talk Magazine

    HORSE TALK magazine

    Posted on Friday 2nd June

    Coronation Cup - Friday 2nd June (3.25 Epsom)

    The Epsom Coronation Cup is 'The Derby' for older horses. This year see's a select but high class field go to post for this £141,950 contest, which includes 2004 Vodafone Oaks heroine Ouija Board.

    The nature of Epsom's unique undulations mean that not all horses act on it. Swinging into the home straight around the famous Tattenham Corner, can upset the balance of even the very best thoroughbred, so previous course form is always an advantage., which brings in the trio of Enforcer (66), Something Exciting (69) and Ouija Board (136).

    Coronation Cup Ratings Based on all previous form the latter has very little to prove having raced almost exclusively in the top company since her Oaks win. Under Frankie Dettori and back over her optimum trip she is the one they all have to aspire to beat. Despite previous course form, it would be a major surprise to see either Enforcer or Something Exciting strike a blow in this company.

    Sir Michael Stoute's Notable Guest (104) has made the transition from Handicapper to Group performer but still needs to find more in this company. French raider Shirocco (118) has been specifically prepared for this and comes here on the back of a comfortable win in the Group Two Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket in May. Andre Fabre is convinced his charge has the class and ability to win this, but our ratings do say otherwise.

    The Ballydoyle representative Ace (105) has yet to win at the highest level, but is admirably consistent and the one most likely to take advantage should both Ouija Board or Shirocco fail to shine On a betting front, Shirocco is an odd-on chance, which considering Ouija Board's past achievements is a complete insult to Ed Dunlop's classy mare, who at 3/1 looks more than just good value.

    Oaks - Friday 2nd June (4.05 Epsom)

    In the Vodafone Oaks, eleven fillies' are set to go to post, in what promises to be a truly fascinating contest. None are proven over the course, so undoubtedly there will be some hard luck reports from jockeys and trainers afterwards, so the form lines of all previous runs are an integral part of drawing our conclusions. Tine On (37) is interesting, although posted a very lowly rating. This is down to the fact she showed little as a juvenile and despite being unbeaten this term, she is yet to race at a higher level than listed company. That said, if you disregard the top two runaway leaders in the ratings, this could prove to be one of the closest running's of the Oaks for some time.

    Oaks Ratings Behind Time On last time out, were both Prowess (32) and Kaylianni (15) who need to improve well beyond any previous form to strike a blow. Although upsets happen, neither of these look capable of producing one. John Best's filly Rising Cross (52) dead-heated in a weak looking renewal of the Lupe Stakes last time out and having handled the undulations of Goodwood, this could offer a glimmer of hope for connections, although one of her owners, Dave Nevison has stated "She runs as there is only one Oaks and it looks open regards finishing in the prize money." Sir Michael Stoute's Aga Khan owned Riyalma (55) could be the dark horse in the race and has the look of a progressive type, although she has attained a rating based purely on what she has achieved on the track so far. Were I to have to pick an outsider with potential, she would be the one.

    The trio of Kassiopeia (64), Short Skirt (70) and Guilia (75) have little between them. Short Skirt bustled up ante-post favourite Alexandrova (103) at York last time out in the Musidora Stakes, but the O'Brien filly looked tired in the final furlong that day and is sure to improve for the run. That said Short Skirt didn't look like stopping so could well be one to fill a minor placing.

    Back to Aidan O'Brien's Alexandrova. Her when pipped in the final stride s by Nannina in the Group One Meon Valley Fillies' Mile at Newmarket last year looks rock solid. So many of the Ballydoyle runners have needed a run this term, prior to showing their true form, her defeat at York can be forgiven and she should not be disregarded lightly. Her breeding suggests this is her trip and the ground will be perfect for her rounded knee action. Our leader on ratings however, is Pam Sly's 1000 Guineas winner Speciosa (135). She has regularly defied the pundits and improved beyond any expectations, winning at Newmarket in no uncertain terms with the suggestion that given an easy time in front, she will be hard to peg back. She is the only Group One winner in the field so warrants maximum respect and still available at around 6/1 looks a good each-way call.

    The Derby - Saturday 3rd June (4.20 Epsom)

    Eighteen go to post for the Vodafone Derby and this years renewal, in similar fashion to the Oaks could prove to be closer than many people imagine.

    If the outside quartet of Atlantic Waves (52), Best Alibi (57) Sixties Icon (25) and the unraced Noddies Way (25) are discounted two groups are clearly formed, being likely winners and prize money hunters. By all accounts it obviously pays to side with those heading the ratings, at the top of the figures are the classy pair of Sir Percy (119) and Horatio Nelson (117). Both have been well supported in the betting, although the latter has been the subject of a strong gamble since it was announced he would be the mount of Kieren Fallon.

    Derby Ratings Sir Percy did little wrong in the 2000 Guineas, finishing a clear second behind George Washington. The trip is the only concern, but from a form perspective, it is only Horatio Nelson that comes close to his previous achievements. Interestingly, if Dylan Thomas (113) lines-up then according to the figures he needs consideration. His form also backs this up, as his defeat of stablemate Mountain (77), Youmzain and Altius in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial reads very strongly, as he can only improve on that as it was his first run of the season. Ante-post favourite Visindar (101), trained in France by Andre Fabre comes here an unbeaten horse, but his price is based upon reputation rather than what he has actually achieved. In all fairness his rating, is probably a more realistic assessment of his chance.

    Fabre's other runner Linda's Lad (105) won the Lingfield Derby trial under an all out drive from Christophe Soumillon, but it confirmed him as a colt that should have no problems with the track or trip. Frankie Dettori rides and this does look his best chance for some time to finally break his hoodoo of never having won the Derby. Another that can be considered is Papal Bull (105). This colt was supplemented at a cost of £75,000 just a week prior to the race having won the Chester Vase in a cheeky fashion. Kieren Fallon gave this horse a very favourable report at Sandown Park's Bank Holiday meeting and given that connections paid out the supplementary fee, you would have to think they are expecting them to recoup at least some of this in prize money. Robert Winston has been booked for the ride and it could be that he is the outsider to take into the contest - at 12/1 he offers very good value.

    Geoff Wragg's Dragon Dancer (100) and Mick Channon's Championship Point (99) are others that shouldn't be immediately discounted and the latter has solid form, if not quite top class. His easy win in the Predominate Stakes at Goodwood puts him firmly in the picture as another outsider that could well feature if the market principals fail to fire. A tough race to call, but if the ratings have anything to say, it looks to be a showdown between Sir Percy and Horatio Nelson.







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