Posted: 16th January 2007

The Cheltenham Festival is less than nine weeks away and many of the Championship races are beginning to take shape. The Gold Cup looks at the mercy of Kauto Star (13/8 BetDirect) who has been a revelation since his facile Aintree success in a handicap back in the autumn. I remember speaking to Will Lambe from the BHB immediately after the race who felt we had just witnessed something special, and that he ought to be considered as a serious Gold Cup candidate. I remember being somewhat sceptical thinking he had beaten a couple of non-stayers over 2m 4f, and that 3m 2f around Cheltenham was a different kettle of fish altogether.

Having witnessed first hand his demolition of some of the best 3milers around at Haydock and then his facile Tingle Creek success at Sandown, it would be fair to say that going into the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day I was expecting nothing more than a lap of honour by Paul Nicholls' stable star. The record books will tell you that Kauto Star ran out an 8l winner from the progressive Exotic Dancer, but the 8/13 favourite made two blunders in the final mile which he may not get away with in March. Having fallen at the third in the Champion Chase of 2006, on his sole run at the track, Kauto Star could hardly be described as a Cheltenham specialist and, despite the brilliance of his last three Grade 1 victories, there are many pundits who believe Prestbury Park's twenty two fences will prevent Paul Nicholls from landing a second Gold Cup following See More Business's 1999 success.

War Of Attrition (4/1 with BetDirect) is the reigning Champion having landed a sub-standard event last year when taken wide throughout, but jumping brilliantly, before being produced on the home turn to defeat the Grand National winner of 2005 in Hedgehunter. With the sad loss of triple Gold Cup winner Best Mate, and injuries to 2005 victor Kicking King and Hennessy winner Trabolgan the field was high in quantity (22 biggest field ever) but low in quality. When you think Beef Or Salmon (who patently hates the place) went off the 4/1 favourite you get some idea that it was hardly a vintage field. That said War Of Attrition loved the underfoot conditions (officially good but run under 7 seconds below standard) and granted similar ground could well double up in March.

He has run well on ground softer than ideal so far this term, and it will be interesting to see if trainer Mouse Morris runs the eight-year-old in the Irish Hennessy (10th Feb) given that race looks sure to be run on soft or heavy ground. Well held behind The Listener in the Lexus over Xmas Morris may well decide to wait for better ground at Cheltenham although he will be only too aware that the tracks New Year's Day meeting was run on heavy ground and it has not stopped raining since!!

In Compliance (7/1 BetDirect) has yet to prove he stays three and a quarter miles, but he goes into the race with a similar profile to War Of Attrition last year. His excellent handler Michael O'Brien considers him vastly superior to last year's Gold Cup third Forget The Past, and he was most impressive in the John Durkan last time, but he is blessed with plenty of pace and the Ryanair Chase could be his Festival target. We are likely to know more after the Irish Hennessy.

The Letherby & Christopher Chase at Cheltenham at the end of January sees the David Pipe/David Johnson contender Our Vic (12/1 with BetDirect) have his prep race for the main event. Subject of bullish noises from owner Johnson the horse was recently described by Tom Segal of the Racing Post as "the most underrated horse in training by some distance" to which his owner concurred. Very impressive when landing the Charlie Hall at Wetherby back in October the nine-year-old clearly goes well fresh and is a dual Cheltenham winner, although it should be noted that he has also failed to complete on three occasions in seven starts at Cheltenham and has been beaten at 11/8f, 7/4f and 11/2 in the last three Festivals.

It looks as if Hennessy winner State Of Play (BetDirect price 11/1) will go straight to the race with Welsh wizard Evan Williams deciding against a prep run. Having won the Newbury feature first time out State Of Play is another who, obviously, goes well fresh but he lacks experience of Cheltenham and the Hennessy form has hardly been franked with only Cornish Rebel (landed a poor 4-runner event at New Year) having won since the November event. Halcon Genelardais (20/1) won the Welsh National off a 2lb higher mark than State Of Play did the Hennessy and, if the rain continues, I know which one I would like to be on granted soft ground with Alan King's charge almost double the price.

The Listener (12/1) is another mudlover who must have testing underfoot conditions. The Irish Hennessy will tell us if Robert Alner's grey is a genuine Gold Cup contender, but his Lexus success certainly looked impressive and he had previously made the Sun Alliance Chase winner Star De Mohaison pull out all the stops at Sandown. All his six career wins have soft or heavy in the going description and his handler, who has saddled the winner of the race before (Cool Dawn 1998), will be praying that the current unsettled weather continues into March.

So will you be taking the 13/8 available on Kauto Star for the Blue Riband event? You know he's the best horse in the race, but he's never beaten War Of Attrition or In Compliance or State Of Play or Our Vic or you get my point. Superstar probably, Gold Cup winner? 9 weeks and counting

Follow up article - Posted 24th February

The build up to next month's Cheltenham Gold Cup has revolved, almost exclusively, around one horse Paul Nicholls' brilliant Kauto Star. Well what camp are you in?

Camp A: He's the best horse in the race by a country mile and odds against looks generous given he is so far ahead of his rivals on the form book or

Camp B: He fell on his only previous start at Cheltenham, has made serious errors on his last two starts and has yet to prove he has the necessary stamina for the three and a quarter mile trip.

Long range weather forecasters suggest that the beginning of March will continue to see unsettled weather and there is always the possibility of connections switching to the Queen Mother Champion Chase if the race looks like being run in a bog, but there is only one Gold Cup and I would be amazed if Kauto Star did not take up the Gold Cup option. Paul Nicholls at a recent press day was quick too point out how the horse is, fundamentally, a good jumper of a fence prone only to a lack of concentration. His Haydock Park success in the Betfair Chase earlier in the campaign was as good a performance as I have ever witnessed from a Chaser, and his subsequent Grade 1 successes in the Tingle Creek and the King George marked him down as a Champion in waiting.

That said Chasing greats such as Pendil and Wayward Lad failed to land the Gold Cup and God alone knows how Desert Orchid landed the most prestigious prize in jump racing. Trainer Paul Nicholls insists that the fences at Cheltenham are not as fierce as they once were, and that may well be the case, but will he get away with a similar mistake to the ones that blighted his Kempton and Newbury (Aon Chase) successes if the petrol gauge is on its last bar?

Granted good ground the main rival to Kauto Star must be the Gold Cup winner of 2006 War Of Attrition. He gave the outside up to no one when landing the Blue Riband event last year and trainer Mouse Morris has taken a similar path to last year in that he will go the the Festival fresh, having not raced since being asked to handle desperate conditions at Leopardstown over Xmas. It didn't look a vintage Gold Cup last year, but as an eight-year-old he ought to be nearing his physical peak and his wonderful jumping will be a great asset .....granted good ground. He remains a 9/2 shot with BetDirect and is likely to go off 7/2 on good ground and 7/1 on soft ground. Any weather forecasters out there?

Exotic Dancer has been one of the stars of the season, having landed three competitive events, all at Cheltenham, so far this term. The only horses to have lowered the colours of Jonjo O'Neill's charge in five starts this season are the enigmatic Turpin Green in an unsatisfactory three-runner Carlisle event, and Kauto Star in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day. He will have to improve again to make the frame, but you get the impression his progression has surprised even Jonjo and Barry Simpson (owner Sir Robert Ogden's racing manager), but he will have to put up a career best to reach the three.

Whereas War Of Attrition requires good ground Robert Alner's The Listener needs soft or heavy ground to be seen at his best. A fluent winner from Beef Or Salmon in the Lexus Chase (War Of Attrition behind) over Xmas was followed by a 3/4l defeat at the hands of Beef Or Salmon in the Irish Hennessy when he looked all over the winner before being run out of it close home. At 10/1 with BetDirect at present he is likely to go off at single figures if there is soft in the going description come the day of the race, but he would be inconvenienced if the ground dried out appreciably.

State Of Play (11/1) is the other potential improver in the race, having not been seen on the track since landing the Hennessy at Newbury back in November. Much has been written about the well-being of the Evan Williams horses in recent weeks, but the Welsh handler is sure to have the horse at concert pitch for the race, if there is nothing ailing his string. It is only two starts ago that he was landing an Aintree handicap off 128, but he made the transition to leading handicapper effectively at the Berkshire track. Can he make the switch to Gold Cup winner as seamlessly?

The Gold Cup remains the most prestigious prize in jump racing (the Grand National remains the greatest race). At the beginning of this preview I asked if you were for or against the jolly old favourite Kauto Star. Have you decided yet? Only two and a bit weeks to go now.

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