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06 January,
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  • Cheltenham 2006 Statistics
    provided by Guy Ward of Mathematician Betting

    Introduction

    The aim of this article is to provide you with some cold hard statistics with regards to the major Cheltenham races. The Cheltenham race statistics discussed here are based on 13 years of past records. We are providing information on 18 of the 24 Cheltenham races, those not discussed being omitted due to them being first runnings or newer races not suitable for back checking over many years.

    I am not seeking to list each and every stat for each race, what I have attempted to do is to boil the information down into stats that stand out as unusual or are particularly significant. Take trainers for example. I will not list each and every trainers record for any particular race, I will however identify and highlight trainers who have done particularly well or particularly badly.

    To aid your understanding of the information presented I will explain some of the terms and jargon below.

    1 - Renewals....When I talk in the document about renewals, I am talking about the number of past runnings examined to produce the stats mentioned. e.g. 13 Renewals means I have examined the last 13 years of the race in question.

    2 - Stats Notation: When I give figures such as 1- 20 , this means there have been 20 past instances of such a stat, with only one win. e.g. I may say "Horses carrying 11st 8lbs or more are only 0-24" That means for that particular race, 24 horses in the past carried 11st 8lbs or more but none of them won. What to do with the Stats

    The stats are a base upon which to build further. They are only part of the jigsaw but I can assure you many others will be trying to solve the same puzzle but without the information you now possess. In my own betting I tend to first cross reference runners against strong statistical trends. This often aids in producing a short list for closer examination or identifies over bet favorites with serious statistical questions against their chances that are worth taking on in the exchanges.

    You will find me doing this analysis work for clients whether it be for a muddy Ludlow on a Wednesday afternoon or a major meeting such as Cheltenham. If you want to see an example of how I personally take the raw stats and build on them to arrive at a final betting selection just send a blank email to testmessage@mathematician-betting.co.uk

    I hope these stats help point you to a few good winners or sway you from a few bad bets you may otherwise have made.
    Best Wishes and Good Luck
    Guy Ward

    Cheltenham 2006: Main Index

    Tues 14 March  Anglo Irish Bank Supreme Novices' Hurdle
    Tues 14 March  Smurfit Champion Hurdle
    Tues 14 March  William Hill Trophy Handicap Steeplechase
    Weds 15 March  Royal & SunAlliance Novices' Hurdle
    Weds 15 March  Royal & SunAlliance Steeplechase
    Weds 15 March  Queen Mother Champion Steeplechase
    Weds 15 March  Coral Cup Hurdle
    Weds 15 March  Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Steeplechase
    Weds 15 March  Weatherbys Champion Bumper
    Thur 16 March  Ladbrokes World Hurdle
    Thur 16 March  Racing Post Plate (A Handicap Steeplechase)
    Thur 16 March  National Hunt Steeplechase Challenge Cup
    Thur 16 March  Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)
    Fri 17 March  JCB Triumph Hurdle
    Fri 17 March  Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup
    Fri 17 March  Christie's Foxhunter Steeplechase
    Fri 17 March  Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeplechase
    Fri 17 March  Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle



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