provided by Guy Ward of Mathematician Betting
The aim of this article is to provide you with some cold hard statistics with regards to the major Cheltenham races. The Cheltenham race statistics discussed here are based on 13 years of past records. We are providing information on 18 of the 24 Cheltenham races, those not discussed being omitted due to them being first runnings or newer races not suitable for back checking over many years.
I am not seeking to list each and every stat for each race, what I have attempted to do is to boil the information down into stats that stand out as unusual or are particularly significant. Take trainers for example. I will not list each and every trainers record for any particular race, I will however identify and highlight trainers who have done particularly well or particularly badly.
To aid your understanding of the information presented I will explain some of the terms and jargon below.
1 - Renewals....When I talk in the document about renewals, I am talking about the number of past runnings examined to produce the stats mentioned. e.g. 13 Renewals means I have examined the last 13 years of the race in question.
2 - Stats Notation: When I give figures such as 1- 20 , this means there have been 20 past instances of such a stat, with only one win. e.g. I may say "Horses carrying 11st 8lbs or more are only 0-24" That means for that particular race, 24 horses in the past carried 11st 8lbs or more but none of them won. What to do with the Stats
The stats are a base upon which to build further. They are only part of the jigsaw but I can assure you many others will be trying to solve the same puzzle but without the information you now possess. In my own betting I tend to first cross reference runners against strong statistical trends. This often aids in producing a short list for closer examination or identifies over bet favorites with serious statistical questions against their chances that are worth taking on in the exchanges.
You will find me doing this analysis work for clients whether it be for a muddy Ludlow on a Wednesday afternoon or a major meeting such as Cheltenham. If you want to see an example of how I personally take the raw stats and build on them to arrive at a final betting selection just send a blank email to email@example.com
I hope these stats help point you to a few good winners or sway you from a few bad bets you may otherwise have made.
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