Latest Cheltenham Odds
I'm still only just recovering from the Irish World awards last week - what a night!
I was chuffed to present an award to Mouse Morris on the night but have to say that I'm gutted for him. What an awful week he's had, firstly his mother sadly passed away and then War of Attrition was ruled out of defending his Gold Cup crown at Cheltenham last week.
Speaking of Cheltenham though, it's time to start getting serious about the biggest four days of the year. 5 days and counting, and I'm counting! I can't wait for the roar when the tapes go up in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle on Tuesday. I'll be in Cheltenham next week so will give you the latest for the last two days, but let's first have a look at Tuesday and Wednesday.
The ground is the main talking point at the moment and it looks as though it's going to be very soft to start with. This can mean one of two things, either there'll be a host of freak results that will leave us bookies with satchels bulging, or else there's plenty of value left in the soft ground horses. Speaking of the ground, I was talking to a mate who lives in Cheltenham and he said that it hasn't stopped raining. It will definitely be soft on day 1. (Betfinder ed: It's actually drying up a lot now (Monday) and could be good to soft come Tuesday. Good news for Black Jack Ketchum but bad news for Nickname.)
The Champion Hurdle is the highlight of the week for me and it doesn't get much better than having the winners from the previous two years and also the Triumph hurdle champion from last year battling it out.
Detroit City deserves to be favourite to give the English a rare win in the race but I wouldn't write off either of Brave Inca or Hardy Eustace. In fact I'm pretty sweet on Hardy Eustace. He's been there and done that twice and only lost his crown last year after an interrupted preparation. This year he has been better than ever and even if age is catching up on him, the slower ground will keep the pace sensible. He'll hit the front early and wont come back to them.
You're wallet will be swollen by the time Hardy wins if my bet of the week prevails in the Arkle. It's Don't Push It for Jonjo O'Neill, JP McManus and AP McCoy. This lad wont mind the ground and will have no trouble getting home considering he ran Denman to ¾ of a length over an extra half mile at Cheltenham in November.
On Wednesday I think Catch Me will be saying just that in the Ballymore Properties Hurdle and I don't think they will. In the second race the Sun Alliance Chase, the value has to be Snowy Morning for Willie Mullins. He's still an each way price and while Denman will take plenty of beating, I can't see Snowy Morning out of the first 3. He could be as short as 6/1 on the day.
The Queen Mother is the highlight of the week for many and this year it's pretty intriguing with Well Chief back on the scene, last year's winner Newmill in top form and the soft ground specialist Nickname coming seriously into the equation. For me it's a repeat of last year. Newmill didn't get the credit he deserved for a thumping performance and went and confirmed it was no fluke when hacking up at Punchestown. He'll win regardless of the ground.
As for the Ryanair on Thursday, I'll be amazed if Taranis' price doesn't shorten up a bit. Don't forget this lad was plotted up for the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November and fell when travelling well. He's come back and won over hurdles when not fully wound up since so the Nicholls/Ruby team is bound to be popular.
Jaysus I can't wait!
Betfinder interviews Paddy Power..
Now, Betfinder took an opportunity to interview Paddy Power about the upcoming action...
Betfinder : Does Kauto Star's jumping frailties and possible suspect stamina make him a horse to lay in this season's Gold Cup or is he so far ahead of the rest, the is overpriced at odds-against. If he's not for you at the price, who is?
PP: It's hard not to be a layer of any horse in a championship race at the festival who'll start at short odds. The fences might catch him out, but there are question marks about plenty of the others too. Exotic Dancer is one who looks like he could get involved in the shake up.
Betfinder : With Kauto Star taking up almost 50% of the book, there is plenty of each-way value around in this season's Gold Cup. Which horse outsid the top half-dozen in the betting strikes you as a possible to run into the frame at tasty odds like so many placed horses in recent seasons?
PP: Cane Brake. He's tough & battle hardened and has won two big handicaps this season including the Paddy Power Chase off top weight which takes some doing. Tom Taafe has only had him a few months and has really improved him.
Betfinder : On ratings alone, the Triumph Hurdle is already done and dusted with Lounaos miles clear on her fourth placing in the AIG Champion Hurdle. Should we treat that form as read and lump on or are there grounds for believing she was flattered and she should be taken on by another rival?
PP: Treat that form as read. The AIG was a true run race so Lounaos has gone toe to toe with Hardy, Brave Inca and Macs Joy. His previous form has also worked out well - lump on!
Betfinder : Wichita Lineman will be many punters' idea of a Festival banker and is likely to start at cramped odds for the Brit Insurance Novices' Hurdle.Is he one to be with or should we be looking elsewhere for better value and, if so, where?
PP : He looks a very solid favourite. He's dispelled the myth that he was a flat track bully. If there's one that's well overpriced it's Black Harry. He was ultra impressive at Fairyhouse over 3m and looks an out and out stayer.
Betfinder : Which horse is your company's biggest ante-post loser at the Festival?
PP: It's between Brave Inca and Black Jack Ketchum. We took a view when Black Jack got beat and laid him heavily at 5/2.
Betfinder : The Irish were responsible for far too many winners at last season's Festival (only kidding). Which Irish-trained horse do you rate as the most likely winner at the Festival and which offers the best value?
PP: The Irish could never have too many winners! We'll most likely win the Champion Hurdle but one horse that stands out is Lounaos
Betfinder : Of all the strongly-fancied horses at this season's Festival, which would you take on with confidence and why?
PP: Aran Concerto in the Ballymore Properties Hurdle. He's a chaser in the making and misses hurdles when he has to go short. He reminds me of Denman last year.
Betfinder : Festival banker please.
PP: Denman. I don't think the Irish are up to too much and just can't find one to beat him.
Paddy Power's Cheltenham Specials
Paddy Power's famous Guinness betting is back for Cheltenham but can punters match last year's record-breaking thirst?
With the questionable weather forecasts, lack of St Patrick's Day and tough quest for Ireland to bring home so many winners this year it could be tough but a rare Cheltenham that doesn't clash with Gordon Brown's budget will bring the City Boys down in their droves to take it on.
Paddy Power are refreshing their popular Guinness betting on how many pints of the black stuff will be drunk during the big meeting.
How Many Pints of Guinness Will Be Sold at The Cheltenham Festival?
33/1 - Less than 140,000 Pints of Guinness
20/1 - 140,000 - 149,999 Pints of Guinness
8/1 - 150,000 - 159,999 Pints of Guinness
6/1 - 160,000 - 169,999 Pints of Guinness
5/2 - 170,000 - 179,999 Pints of Guinness
11/4 - 180,000 - 189,999 Pints of Guinness
5/1 - 190,000 - 199,999 Pints of Guinness
9/4 - 200,000 Pints of Guinness or more
THOMMO CLICHÉ BETTING
One of Paddy Power's most famous betting specials in recent times has been our Commentary Cliché betting across a variety of major sporting occasions and now it's racing's turn with the voice of Channel 4, Derek 'Thommo' Thompson bringing the atmosphere of Cheltenham to millions of viewers with his inimitable style and infectious enthusiasm.
But which of his much-loved catchphrases will he say first during the four day Festival?
What will Derek Thompson say first on C4 during the Cheltenham Festival?
2/1 Well done
6/1 The wait is over
6/1 It's the big one
6/1 The moment you've been waiting for
7/1 What a day we have in store for you
7/1 It doesn't get any bigger than this
7/1 The Irish invasion
10/1 Fine Looking Filly
10/1 He's the champ
10/1 Pint Of Guinness
10/1 I can't wait
12/1 Irish Raider
14/1 Stay with us
14/1 What we all dream of
14/1 Didn't he do well
16/1 The atmospheres electric
16/1 Cheltenham roar
16/1 The World Cup of racing
25/1 The black stuff
33/1 Who's gonna get there?
(Afternoon programmes only. Excluding Morning Line)
Zara Betting
World Equestrian Champion, BBC Sports Personality of the Year and a royal favourite amongst punters. All eyes will be on Zara Phillips at Cheltenham and in a tribute to Paddy Power's Queens Hat betting at Royal Ascot the bookie is offering a unique twist on the world famous betting market for a 21st century girl.
What Color Will Zara's Shoes Be At Cheltenham on Tuesday?
5/4 Black
4/1 Dark Brown
8/1 Tan
8/1 Cream/Beige
8/1 Navy Blue
10/1 Green
10/1 Pink
10/1 Red
12/1 White
14/1 Purple
16/1 Leopard Print
16/1 Pale/Light Blue
16/1 Royal Blue
66/1 Yellow
66/1 Orange
250/1 St George's Cross
250/1 Union Jack
RACING SPECIALS
5/2 Favourite Kauto Star to fall, unseat or be brought down in the Cheltenham Gold Cup
Top Jockey
13/8 Ruby Walsh; 3/1 AP McCoy; 5/1 Richard Johnson; 10/1 Timmy Murphy; 10/1 Robert Thornton; 12/1 Mick Fitzgerald; 14/1 Barry Geraghty; 16/1 Paul Carberry; Others available
Top Trainer
11/10 Paul Nicholls; 11/2 Jonjo O'Neill; 6/1 Peter Hobbs; 7/1 Nicky Henderson; 8/1 Alan King; 8/1 David Pipe; 20/1 Noel Meade; Others available
State Of The Ground - will the horses be wearing waders?
4/6 Soft
5/2 Good to Soft
3/1 Heavy
20/1 Good
200/1 Good to Firm
Combined winning distance of Cheltenham Festival winners
8/13 Over 80 Lengths
15/8 65-80 Lengths
11/2 Under 65 Lengths
Number Of Irish Winners
8/1 Up to and including four
7/2 5 to 6 Winners
13/8 7 to 8 Winners
7/4 9 to 10 Winners
6/1 11 or more winners
MAJOR RACE ANTE-POST BETTING
Tuesday - Champion Hurdle
9-4 Detroit City; 7-2 Brave Inca; 5 Hardy Eustace; 8 Straw Bear; 10 Macs Joy; 16 Asian Maze, Iktitaf, Sublimity; 20 Harchibald, Newmill; 33 Jazz Messenger, Afsoun; 50 Acambo; 100-1 Bar
¼ odds 1, 2, 3
Wednesday - Queen Mother Champion Chase
7-4 Well Chief; 7-2 Newmill; 4 Nickname; 9-2 Voy Por Ustedes; 8 Monet's Garden; 12 Ashley Brook; 20 Dempsey; 25 Foreman, Justified; 33 Accordion Etoile, Sporazene; 40 River City; 50-1 Bar
¼ odds 1, 2, 3
Thursday - Ladbrokes World Hurdle
11-4 Inglis Drever; 10-3 Black Jack Ketchum, 5 Mighty Man, Blazing Bailey; 10 Asian Maze, Kasbah Bliss; 11 Labelthou; 12 Temoin; 16 United; 20 Flight Leader; 25 Overstrand; 33 Lough Derg, Princesse D'Anjou; 50-1 Bar
¼ odds 1, 2, 3
Friday - Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup
11-8 Kauto Star; 5 Exotic Dancer; 7 The Listener; 10 State Of Play; 14 Beef Or Salmon; 16 L'ami, Cane Brake, My Will; 20 Our Vic; 25 Forget The Past, Racing Demon, Halcon Genelardais; 33 Kingscliff, Neptunes Collonges; 50 Monkerhostin, Nil Desperandum;
66-1 Bar
¼ odds 1, 2, 3
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