Queen Mother Champion Chase [Latest Odds]

The Queen Mother Champion Chase is for me one of the spectacles of the week at the festival. In recent years it has seen battles between the three best two-milers in Moscow Flyer, Azertyuiop and Well Chief. Unfortunately only Jessica Harrington’s Moscow Flyer returns to do battle at Prestbury Park this year, as his two big rivals are currently sidelined with injuries.

Starting with the reigning Champion, Moscow Flyer’s aura of invincibility has been shattered with three defeats already this season. Whether age has finally caught up with this equine superstar, we will know by 3.30 on Wednesday, March 15. I think he will still probably have a part to play in proceedings, but with a host of young pretenders vying for his crown, he may have to settle for a supporting role.

Paul Nicholls is responsible for ante-post favourite Kauto Star. The six-year-old gelding finished second behind subsequent King George runner-up Monkerhostin in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter, on the ill-fated afternoon of Best Mate’s demise, then scored in scintillating style to win the Tingle Creek at Sandown in early December.

Connections are certainly keen not to over-race this one and could send him straight to Cheltenham. My doubt about Kauto Star, is his relative inexperience in a fast championship contest against big name rivals. He dealt with the railway fences at Sandown better than anticipated, but the Cheltenham obstacles are unforgiving, as we have seen with so may lightly raced sorts over the years. He is certainly a class act , but far too short in the betting for me to play.

Last year’s Arkle runner-up Ashley Brook is a useful performer who loves to bowl along in front and dictate matters. In the Tingle Creek he was only caught close home by Kauto Star, but did look beaten by a better horse on the day, so the only reason to expect him to reverse the form, would be down to prior course experience. That said he seemed much more at home on the flat Aintree circuit where he slammed War of Attrition at last years Grand National festival. A nice horse but this looks his toughest assignment yet.

It is always folly to write off anything Nicky Henderson sends to the festival, but at this early stage, the only entry he has in the contest is Isio, who would need to defy a lay-off of over two years.

The strength in depth of the Irish challenge this year is scary. Michael Hourigan’s Hi Cloy has taken the scalps of Moscow Flyer and Fota Island already this year, but was put firmly in his place by John Murphy’s Newmill at Thurles. Both of these horses warrant respect, but they are also seemingly more effective over further than the bare minimum. Neither are my idea of the winner, but they are certainly capable of running into the places if turning up on song.

Justified looks to be a big player and despite blotting his copy book by unseating his jockey at the first fence on Boxing Day at Leopardstown, he fully atoned for this error in the best possible manner, when winning as he liked at Newbury in a warm little Novices contest.

Fellow Irish raider Fota Island won the Grand Annual in clear cut fashion at last year’s festival and then went on to land the Red Rum chase at Aintree. On his seasonal debut this year he was unlucky to get pipped by Hi Cloy close home, but had ‘Moscow’ beaten off back in fourth place. Last weekend’s victory at Fairyhouse over Central House confirmed he is coming to hand and this race has been the target ever since winning here last year.

Mouse Morris knows how to prepare a runner for the big occasion and it’s always madness to write off any of the big names from the Emerald Isle, so for me at 7/1 this horse still offers a real value alternative to the front pair in the betting, especially given that we know he handles the track and goes well on a variety of going.

Selection : FOTA ISLAND @ 7/1 (EACH-WAY)

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World Hurdle [Latest Odds]

The World Hurdle now rightly has its place as the main event on the third day of the festival. The strength of the staying hurdling division has certainly started to develop, especially in the past couple of years.

Inglis Drever ran out the impressive winner of last year’s contest, but is another big name casualty that will not be making the festival this year due to injury. Without Howard Johnson’s stable star, the Northern trainer will rely upon No Refuge, who has emerged as a star in his own right, only tasting defeat once in five starts over timber, when he still finished second.

A shock winner of last years Royal & Sun Alliance Hurdle from Henrietta Knight’s classy Racing Demon, he reappeared at Windsor in November at comfortably saw off François Doumen’s Blue Canyon. Despite not ever racing over three miles, he has good speed between his hurdles and didn’t look like stopping at Windsor, which gives every indication he will stay. His Achilles heel could be his jumping which has never looked fluent and could be an issue, especially if he losses ground with a lack of fluency during the race.

Alan King’s Crystal D’Ainay has been the proverbial bridesmaid on numerous occasions to the big guns in this division and just seems to lack a gear or two, to make him a major contender. That said, if others fall to the wayside you would expect him to be involved.

This is one race that the Irish contingent is not exceedingly strong, although they do have a couple of useful performers in the shape of Al Eile and Asian Maze. The latter has now won two Grade 1’s on the bounce, although has yet to run this season. With multiple race entries at the festival, connections will be keen to enter him in the race that offers the best opportunity to win, which does point towards this contest. His double figure odds of 10/1 make him my idea of the outside option, as it is almost inconceivable to see him not be there or thereabouts passing the post.

Tom Taffe’s Emotional Moment cruised to an easy victory this past week at Gowran Park in preparation for this race, but in four previous visits to Cheltenham, he is yet to impress that this is a track that suits his style of running.

Jonjo O'Neill has the rapidly improving and unbeaten Novice Black Jack Ketchum entered. Following a Grade 2 win over course and distance back in December connections were keen to opt for a crack at the World Hurdle rather than the Royal SunAlliance. The six-year-old gelding has done nothing but improve with every outing and will certainly not be out of place should he take his chance in this contest.

The French challenge comes from the François Doumen yard. Blue Canyon will be looking to step up on his run behind No Refuge and will from part of a double assault for big money owner J P McManus, alongside the mighty Baracouda. Had this dual Stayer’s Hurdle winner been trained in Britain he would be heralded as a modern equine superstar, but as he is from France, the credit he deserves is never truly recognised.

Since finishing fifth when making his hurdling debut in 2000, this imposing ten-year-old has ran twenty-five times, winning on eighteen occasions and finished runner-up on the other seven. There is not another horse in training that can boast this sort of C.V. And given the fact that seven of these wins have been in Grade 1 company, his consistency at the top level cannot be questioned. Had he not suffered reversals of fortune, behind Inglis Drever and Iris’s Gift in the past couple of years, then there is no way this horse would be on offer at the massive price of 9/2. This has to be the ante-post bet of the season, as it would be a massive shock to all if François Doumen’s charge was not in the mix at the business end of things.

It gives you a free bet if he finishes in the prize money and a nice little profit if he wins. Get on each-way, before the value disappears. My ante-post nap!

Selection: BARACOUDA @ 9/2 (EACH-WAY)

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Cheltenham Gold Cup [Latest Odds]

Seen by many as the holy grail of National Hunt racing, this years renewal will see the crowning of a new king, following the absence of 2005 victor Kicking King, who is just another high profile name to be missing from this years proceedings due to injury. There is a massive entry at this early stage, but how many of these horses can be treated as serious contenders is what really matters when looking at the ante post market.

Robert Alner’s Kingscliff has really chucked his toys out of the pram in both the King George and more recently the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock. Despite the ground being against him in the latter, he was on and off the bridle throughout, which clearly shows he is a horse with temperament and his own ideas about the game. Not one for me at any price.

The main chance of the Martin Pipe yard will probably rest with the David Johnson owned gelding Celestial Gold. Absent since last years race, the eight-year-old is still very lightly raced, but has top class form in his book, including over course and distance. The one concern is that the current reigning champion trainer has not seen any real consistency amongst his runners since the Paddy Power meeting. This is not a meeting to go into out of form and is does dampen enthusiasm.

Tom George has a pair of runners entered, in Lord of Illusion and the quietly progressive Idle Talk. Both are expected to run this weekend (January 2006). If they perform well then the blue riband of jump racing is set high on their agenda.

Philip Hobbs is another powerful yard to be suffering a lean spell in fortunes, but is upbeat about the chances of his King George runner-up Monkerhostin. Had they raced another ten yards at Sandown Park on Boxing Day then he would have undoubtedly beaten Kicking King. This tough as teak nine-year-old, has to rate as the most consistent chaser of this season so far and has proven his versatility over a variety of trips - although which one is his best, I don’t even think the trainer knows. Since winning the Coral Cup at the 2004 festival, Philip Hobbs’ charge has never looked back and only ever been out of the first three on one occasion in his ten chasing forays. His record over fences at Cheltenham is also rock solid, with two wins and a couple of placed efforts from his four visits. His trainer will have him fully primed and is likely to bring him to the race a fresh horse. A big threat and worthy of his place near the head of the market.

The Irish challenge looks to rest upon the shoulders of Michael Hourigan’s Beef or Salmon and Mouse Morris’ War of Attrition. The latter already has one decision over Kicking King this year and is a clearly a young chaser on the upgrade although he was never going to trouble Beef or Salmon when the pair met in the Grade 1 Lexus Chase at Leopardstown over the Christmas period. Beef or Salmon was mightily impressive that day and will have his final prep race in the Irish Hennessey back at Leopardstown on 12th February, before attempting to land the Gold Cup at his fourth attempt.

His raids away from Ireland have never been convincing, although his effort in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November did offer a glimmer of hope that this could be a trend not to read to deep into. Hourigan recently announced that he was ‘delighted’ with his stable star and that the horse is ‘ seemingly over his muscular problems’. I think that he represents Ireland’s best chance in this years race and looks to be still improving at the age of ten. But despite the assurances from his trainer, I just don’t know if Cheltenham is his track.

Henrietta Knight will be hoping that Impek can rise to the challenge and give owner Jim Lewis a poignant success, following a year that has seen this popular owner not only lose triple champion Best Mate, but his wife as well. Racing has a funny way of producing sentimental and coincidental results, but I struggle to see Impek making the frame.

Both Ollie Magern and Take the Stand are likely to have their supporters, but neither offer anything new to the equation and are erratic regarding form.

Having looked at the current entries, my ante post selection is the Paul Nicholls trained Cornish Rebel. Although perhaps not the likeliest sort on paper, he is yet to finish out of the frame over fences despite having to lump weight around in all the top staying handicaps and can boast course and distance winning form. Nicholls had a similar sort in See More Business, who landed the Gold Cup in 1999 and I think that despite falling slightly short on official ratings with a few of the market leaders, he will come here primed and ready to run a massive race under a patient waiting ride from Ruby Walsh, who will delay making his challenge until approaching the final flight.

Selection - CORNISH REBEL @ 20/1 (EACH WAY)

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