In the Beginners Guide we went through the basics of how to use this site and how to place bets and open accounts with the bookmakers. In this article, we will look at how you can use Betfinder to improve your overall betting performance and look at concept of 'value', a term often touted about in betting circles.

Most of the experts tell us that the way to make a consistent profit from betting is to find value picks. But what exactly is a value bet or as I prefer to call it a value price? It may be easier to try to explain the offside rule to a woman but nevertheless, I shall attempt it..

What is value?
In betting terms, you make a value bet by backing a selection at a better price than your assessment of the selections actual chances of winning. For example, if you consider a horse to be a 2-1 chance to win a race but some particular bookmaker is offering 3-1 then this would represent value and a good betting opportunity for you. Being able to locate value prices, coupled with skill, dedication, hard work and discipline is what separates the professionals from the mugs.

The object of value betting is to make a long term profits by investing in odds that in your opinion represent value. This strategy is based on mathematics and the laws of probabilities along with your own knowledge or inside edge. It takes experience and patience to develop your knack and own way of interpreting what you consider value.

Value is an individual thing..
An important thing to remember is that the concept of value is all in the eye of the beholder. What I may consider a value bet will look like a total waste of money to another punter. Also let's dispell the a few myths early on, a value price is not any selection at odds of 10-1 or more. You will often hear pundits stating that these types often represent a 'good value each way bet' just because of it's high price. Even a 50-1 shot can be bad value if it's actual chances of winning are closer to 100-1. So, there is actually no such thing as A value bet, only MY value bet, or YOUR value bet.

Let's Talk Figures..
To attempt to illustrate the concept of value with a very simple example, consider the scenario of betting on the a toss of coin. Each of the two outcomes has an equal chance of happening, or in other words, 50%. If a bookmaker offered Even money (1/1, which is the fractional equivalent of 50%) on both heads and tails, over time he would pay back out exactly the same as what he had received. This would be what you call a totally 'round book' or a level book, as the percentages add up to 100%. If you could achieve a price greater than Evens on the toss of a coin then that would represent a value price. Consistently betting at 5/4 on one of the 2 outcomes would over time yield a profit.

However, in this hypothetical scenario, a real bookmaker would be more likely to be offering prices of about 5/6 on the two outcomes (i.e. just under Evens). 5/6 equates to about a 54% chance in percentage terms, so the total percentages add up to about 108%. The extra 8% is the bookmakers 'mark-up' or profit margin. Over time, by taking bets on the tossing a coin the bookie would be looking at an 8% profit margin by offering 5/6 on Heads and 5/6 on Tails. (£6 on, to win £5). Basically, he is receiving 8% more in stakes than he is paying out in winnings in the long run.

To calculate the percentage of a fractional price you simply divide the second number, by the total of the two added together and then multiply by 100. So 5/6 would be 6 divided by 11 multiplied by 100, which equals 54.54%

Best price percentages
Chance is a matter of opinion, and is often based on hours of form study. However, a lot of punters do not have the time or skill to do this. However, with the use of the best price percentages you can at least assess which betting markets offer overall good or bad value.

On all the betting markets on Betfinder, there is a percentage figure at the bottom of the odds tables. This is a total percentage of all the best prices percentages available totalled up and represents the 'roundness' of the market or book. This is almost always over 100% and the higher this figure is, the more 'overround' the market is, and the more it favours the bookmakers. Markets with higher percentages generally offer bad value for the punter. If it's around the 140-160% then it offers very poor value and the odds are likely to drift (get bigger) nearer the off-time bringing the best price percentage down.

Note: This site shows best price percentages with betting exchanges included and 'bookies only' best price percentages. Betting exchanges often have better prices available than bookmakers but they do take a small percentage of any winnings as commission, so this has to be taken into account. This is around the 5% mark with Betfair.

How do you assess chance?
If I can identify a race for example with a 110% market in which from my assessment I can eliminate the 6/4 favourite then that 110% market becomes a 70% market in my favour. Strong favourites get beaten every day for a multitude of reasons. In horse racing these reasons may include sweating up in the paddock, too much hype, dodgy jumpers in novice chases, beating weak opposition in previous races etc. etc. Sometimes it is much easier to look for reasons why a selection won't win than to find reasons why it will.

A recent Betfair survey showed it much more profitable to bet on drifters than on steamers. You might not get as many winners that way but at prices of 8/1 etc. you don't have to! You can see the more info on this survey here - http://www.betfairpromo.com/tactemails/camb1a.htm

Favourable markets
The lower this best price percentage figure is the more it favours the punter. Markets with a total best price percentage between 100-110% may offer some value. On some very rare occaisons, (sometimes with snooker or darts matches), the total best price percentage may actually fall under 100% or be 'underround'. This means that a guaranteed profit can potentially be secured. With correct staking, you can back every participant at the best odds, and make a profit no matter what the outcome.

Underround markets
An underround market is one where the total best price percentages add up to less than 100% For example, in an hypothetical snooker match we have Steve Davis with a best price of 6/5, and Ronnie O'Sullivan with a best price of 5/4. Total best price percentage comes to only 89.9% meaning that the book is under-round by 10.1%. You could place £5 on Steve Davis and £5 on Ronnie O'Sullivan (total outlay £10). If Steve Davis wins the return would be £11, and £11.25 for Ronnie O'Sullivan.

Spotting stand out prices
Another method is to spot a mistake by the bookmaker (yes, they do sometimes make mistakes). On the odds tables you can view odds from lots of different bookmakers. If one price is significantly higher than the rest and stands out, it may be a mistake from the odds compiler. If you spot these you could have located a value bet and should act quickly as they are usually quickly corrected once the firm realises they are out of line.

The concept of value is quite a hard one to convey to the beginner, but I hope I've shed some light. If you have any questions resulting from this article then feel free to post them on the forums and I will answer it on there.

In the next part of this beginners guide we will take a look at betting exchanges and how to use them.
Until next time..

Tom